Here at Juicy Stakes Poker, we have been struggling ourselves to find the best way to teach poker math. Poker math is the biggest change in poker since Texas Hold’em made its first appearance in Las Vegas. To say that every decision a top online poker player makes is based on poker math is a bit of an exaggeration, but only a bit.
There are other factors that go into a decision over the board, such as the type of player an opponent is and the position he or she was in when they bet.
But without poker math, most top players would have to rely on instinct and gut feelings and the advent of poker math has put instinct and gut feelings way down on the list of factors that influence a decision.
Pot Odds Lead the Way
Some people have said that every decision based on math in a poker game is based on pot odds. We may or not agree with that statement but we do agree that it simplifies poker math, at least fort some.
So, let’s take a fresh look at pot odds.
What Are Pot Odds?
Pot odds is a way of looking at the odds that we will win a hand. We might know with 100% certainty that we have the best hand. A Royal Flush is a pretty good indication of a winning hand, but these are quite rare. A full house will go far. Four of a kind is a solid hand.
As you can see, even a full house is not a guarantee unless you have aces full and your opponent can only have kings full.
In other words, we make calculated guesses on almost every hand, and the calculation is a combination of the outs we need to win and the size of the pot. If the pot is too small, we might not risk more money to try for that winning river card.
This combination of outs and pot size is what poker players now call pot odds. Please note that pot odds are not just about the size of the pot. They are also about the outs you need and might get, and, if you see deeply enough into a hand, the outs your opponent or opponents need.
A Hand with a Flush Draw is a Powerful Hand
On YouTube, you can see plenty of hands where a flush is badly beaten by a hidden full house. But a flush draw after the flop is really strong. A flush draw gives you a lot of outs. So, let’s use a flush draw as an example of poker math.
The Mind is Grinding Away
In our example, you have two of a suit in the hole, and the flop brings two of the same suit and a third card. Now, you do have to factor in the possibility that the opponent who is still in the hand may have flopped three of a kind. But, for now, we will calculate as if your hand has massive winning potential.
Would You Fold or Bet?
Another factor before we get into the math of this specific hand is which two cards you have in the hole. You probably would have folded if the cards were low and not connected. If you have a queen and a low card, you probably would have folded.
Now, what if you are the big blind? Did a player raise ahead of you before the flop? Or did everyone fold up to the small blind who called? Now you have a picture of the hand. If the small blind had any kind of hand and everyone had already folded, he or she would have bet higher trying to win your big blind.
You don’t have to put any money into the pot in order to see the flop since the small blind called.
The Flop Gives You Four to a Flush
If you held a queen and another card, you might consider folding if the opponent makes a sizable bet. You won’t see a lot of hands like this on YouTube but you will when you play poker at Juicy Stakes.
That’s because poker at Juicy Stakes is the real world, and the YouTube poker clips are entertainment.
When you have four to the flush, you have 9 outs to give you the flush. Your opponent might also have four to a flush with a higher top card, so you are not yet in the driver’s seat, but you do have a very strong hand from the standpoint of pot odds.
The Rule of 2 and 4
This is a classic rule in poker math. It gives you a very good picture of the odds that you will hit the hand you are gunning for. In this hand, after the flop, you multiply your outs by 4. This gives you a 36% chance to hit the flush.
If you have an ace, you might add a pair of aces to your winning chances but this is risky. That would give you a 48% chance to win the hand but it is risky to expect to win the hand with a pair of aces. You can add the outs for a pair of aces only if the flop is so weak, except for your flush draw.
After the turn, you multiply your outs by 2.
What Should You Do if the Opponent Bets?
What could he or she have to bet with? Maybe they have nothing and are bluffing. So, let’s see if calling or raising is a good idea if the opponent has bet.
Now we get to the actual pot odds. This concept still confuses a lot of players who still prefer to play by the seat of their pants, but we encourage you to take hands slowly and get used to calculating the pot odds.
Pot odds are the size of the pot divided by the bet you have to make to call.
Let’s say that the pot had $4 and your opponent bets $2. Now the pot has $6, and you divide that by the $2 you need to bet to call. So, the pot odds are 3-1. If your opponent bets $3, the pot becomes $7, and the pot odds are 7-3 or a little more than 2-1. This simple change will cause many players to fold.
So, a bet of only $2 tells you that the opponent is either bluffing, trying to get you to call even though they have a better hand, or doesn’t understand pot odds.
If they did understand pot odds, they might have bet the $3 and expected you to fold.
What Do Pot Odds Really Tell Us?
They tell us how many times we have to win versus times we might lose in order to break even. Pot odds of 3-1 means that we can lose 3 times if we win once. This is the break-even point. The break-even point in the second pot odds example is only 2.33-1. That means that we have to win much more often in order to break even.
In order to use pot odds correctly, you should convert the odds of winning the hand into a percentage. In the first example, you have a 3-1 chance against winning the hand. Adding 3 and 1, you get 4. Dividing that by 100 means that you have to win only 25% of the hands to break even. In the second example, you would have to win about 335 of the hands to break even.
So, pot odds give you a good idea of how the hand looks to you from a broad standpoint. You are looking not just at this hand but at all similar hands with 9 outs.
Juicy Stakes Poker Gives Players a Lot of Time to Learn How to Assess Pot Odds
Pot odds are neither too hard to master nor are they super simple. They give you a good view of your chances to win. If you have pot odds of 25% but the cost of staying in the hand is high, you have to consider that as well.
Players at Juicy Stakes enjoy a world of poker fun. You can play as often as you like, for as long as you like, and at many different stake levels.
